بررسی رابطه انحرافات نرخ ارز و ماندگاری تورم در ایران

The main goal of this paper is to study the relationship between exchange rate misalignments and inflation persistence in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, we first use a non-linear smooth transition regression model to estimate equilibrium exchange rate in the context of a monetary model for the period 1978:2-2012:1. This allows us to compute exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level. In the next next state, in order to examine whether the inflation rate is persistence, we use a threshold autoregressive method to examine the non-linear behavior of inflation rate in Iran. In general, the result shows that there is a direct relationship between the exchange rate misalignment and the inflation persistence. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level is costly due to its effect on inflation rate. Moreover, the result indicates that an increase in the level of exchange rate is associated with inflation persistence. This finding has important policy implication for monetary authorites in Iran to implement appopriate exchange rate policy in order to fight inflation persistence in this country.